Thoughts and all that...

Clueless as always

2011-06-17T22:01:00.000-07:00

As always, I have no idea why the market goes up when it does and why it goes down. Was under the impression that companies are reporting strong earnings, recovery is holding up pretty good. Then suddenly S&P-500 drop to 1270 this week. Greece is the problem now ? No idea why AAPL should be trading with forward PE of 11, $320/share. Steve Job's health is a concern there ?Most tech companies I look at have P/E close to or less than 10 !!

MSFT at $24 has a forward P/E of 8.8!! Agreed tablets are the craze now but are PCs going to die in another 8 years ?? MRVL at $13 also has a forward P/E of 8. How should one read this ? Big money does not like tech stocks anymore ? BRCM at $ 31has a forward P/E of 10. I mean someone needs to make these chips and get some money out of it. Should I put all my money into these stocks ? For comparison Nike has a forward P/E of 17, JC.Penny at with forward P/E of 13,so Nike or JC.Penny has better growth prospects than AAPL ? Doubt it.

Will look at these 6 months from now, see which one held up better.

Now that I have some time..

2011-02-05T15:11:00.000-08:00

Back to the state of having more time and not knowing what to do with it. Here I go again, reading the tea leaves of the stock market and writing down the thoughts.

2010 has been a good year for the market and my holdings, not being immune to this, has also benefited from the raise. Used to be the case when AAPL was the only stock I would be making some profits and also help even out the losses that I made on other trades. The market has been kind in the last two years and has helped lift up other holdings in my account. Few thoughts on what I think about the market now:

First, I have no clue if the market will go up or down in the next few months or so. S&P500 is at 1310, as I write this. And I have been waiting for a pullback since it hit 1200, about 3 months back. But I do see that on the semiconductor side QCOM is highly overvalued. Expecting a revenue of $14bill this year but trading with a market cap of $90billion ?!! Compare that to Intel, with a revenue of $50billion and a market cap of only $120billion ! Given a choice I would lean towards Intel rather than QCOM. But who knows, as Phil Jackson says "momentum is a strange lady", QCOM may run even higher before returning to reasonable valuation.

Unemployment seems to have dropped from 9.4% to 9.% but no one seems to be cheering about this. Apparently this is more due to people not looking for jobs any more than actually getting one. With 14million dudes still looking for work in this country, I would probably hold off on buying stocks like JCPenny or the likes for some more time.

Also looks like there is lot construction work going on around the world, how else can one explain something like CATerpillar providing AAPL like returns in the last couple of years. I mean have looked at those yellow trucks on the road, compare that to cool IPAD or the IPhone !! Looks don't matter in this case :)

stay tuned...

Haven't blogged in a while

2008-10-24T22:41:00.000-07:00

Haven't blogged in a long time. The time has indeed been long, at the time of previous blog the world we live in still seemed normal, banks had money to lend, jobs were there to be found and but for the few wise ones with strands of gene from Nostradamus, no one thought it was the beginning of the end of good times. Now we are there! We hear that the economy is on life support and come across terms like "commercial paper", "Libor- ?" on daily basis on CNBC /CNN - never knew these strange things were so critical to the economy. Now I look back, wishing that I had a good economics teacher in high school, I would have understood all these things, instead of learning about the charge of electron or mass of proton or Schrodinger's equations - it is some truth that will not set free our economy or the world's credit crisis- hmmm.

Mr. Buffet has injected some confidence into the markets in his article on NY times . But even the richest man on the planet does not have enough money to solve the crisis. So the all mighty US govt. has (or is planning to) inject the much needed cash into the economy. Sounds almost like blood transfusion to some one involved in a bad accident. Hopefully this crash will not be fatal and economy will get out of the ICU soon and be healthy enough to start running around again. In the meantime, other than waiting for things to turn around, the only other thing I can do is dutifully pay my taxes and give the govt. the money save our economy.

Vaigai - new restaurant in the block

2008-07-19T09:07:00.000-07:00

"Vaigai" is a new South Indian restaurant on Arques street, close to Fry's in Sunnyvale. After driving by the restaurant couple of times and making a mental note to check it out soon, the opportunity came up last week and stepped in there for lunch. My first reaction after the seeing the menu was that, it is a lot similar to other South Indian places in the neighborhood and the items were probably a dollar more than other places. The increase in price is understandable, blame it on inflation, gas price and all that. But inflation will come down, so will the gas prices but the items will still cost the same - giving them higher profits - no big deal I guess!

To get a sample of many dishes with one order, I opted for a combo dish that came with Dosa, Idly, Pongal and a Vada. All the dishes tasted good and as my colleague commented, Idly looked "really white!". Vadai & Pongal were tasty too. My colleague had ordered a "Thali" and was not too impressed with it. Not that he was complaining about the taste of the food, but just that he is used to unlimited rice from the likes of KV and the limited rice in $12 "Thali" wasn't justified according to him.

As we went there about 1/2 hour before the usual lunch time, the place looked quite empty. And it didn't look like it was going to get crowded anytime soon. We explained that by saying there are too many places, too close to one another, offering the same kind of food. (See below for the list of South Indian veggie places within 5miles of Vaigai.) To our surprise, the place was packed by the time we were done eating. The one advantage that the place does offer is proximity to work - at least for me - (proximity is defined as distance less than 1/2 a mile).

List of South Indian places within 5 miles of one another:

1.Komala Vilas (KV)
2.Udipi
3.Hotel Saravana Bhavan (HSB)
4.Dasaprakash
5.Madras Cafe
6.Dosa Place
7.Vaigai

In summary, food tastes good but be prepared to pay a dollar more than other places. Since you never know what will happen tomorrow, the quality of food may go down or they may start serving Tacos - to compete with the newly remodeled Taco bell near by- you should check it out sooner rather than later.

Back to Stocks

2008-05-28T21:29:00.000-07:00

Since the previous post on stocks, the market went down, went back up and is holding on to some of the recovery. It was the credit crisis driving down the stocks in the beginning of the year and after the fed bailout of Bear Sterns and interest rate cuts, the market started going back up. These days it seems to be the record oil prices that is driving the stocks down or keeping it form going up.

Had I posted this update few months back, the return from the 3 stock picks would have been pretty bad. Since the market has had some good days in the last couple of months, the returns look fairly decent:

MRVL 16.75 (down 8.7% from 18.76)
AAPL 176.84 (up 108% form 84.76)
SAY 26.95 (up 27.7% from 21.09)

The average return form these 3 stock picks is 26% (including a 22% loss from AMGN that was dropped sometime back). Not a bad return, considering the market has been pretty much flat in this time period. S&P500 is 1360 and it was 1361 when I first recommended these 3 stocks.

It looks like I did manage to pick well managed companies that can withstand occasional market shakeups. That said, I also realized that I should come up with a better way to pick stocks. Being lucky is something that I can't always count on. With that motivation I picked up book on value investing. The ideas in that book are nothing new and is available in so may articles written everyday on Yahoo finance or other websites. But the difference was it did not mean much to me when I started out trading stocks. My reaction was - who has the time to do all that work, I will just pick some stocks and see how it does. But this random Brownian motion leaves me exactly where I started after many hits and misses. Hopefully I can put some procedure in place for all this stock picking. Here is one lesson I piked up recently:

- Don't try to make sense of every price change in every stock that you are interested in. Instead follow the companies that make sense to you. In other words, buy what you know.

The above statement is true but it is also good to join the crowd at times. Check out some of the fertilizer stocks - POT, MON to name a couple. These things have at least doubled in the last one year. Based on recent news it looks like their run is not going stop anytime soon. It will be interesting to watch these in the next 6-9 months. More later...

Restaurant review - Dosa place (Santa Clara)

2008-01-17T21:23:00.001-08:00

Why am I posting restaurant review after a series of stock related blogs -? A simple look at S&P 500 will probably answer that question. Anything and everything in the market is getting killed. So what do we do when we feel depressed about the market overall, we go eat out more than usual.
For one thing, it gets the economy going without Mr.Bernanke's help with fiscal stimulus package or a rate cut. And of course you get to spend sometime outside work and home.

Dosa place - address: 2665 El Camino Real, Santa Clara, CA : doesn't really stand out when you drive on El camino real. It is located on El Camino real between Kiely and San Tomas expressway. The place is relatively new - it has been there for about 2 months. Thats one strong reason to go try out the food. Most restaurants offer good quality food when they start and after a while not only does the quality go down but they tend to get confused whether they are serving Indian food or Mexican food.

The food is good - it tastes good. I have been there twice already. I have tasted their Butter Masala Dosa, Spring Dosa, Sambar vada and Veg. Pakora. Except for Veg pakora, I liked all the other dishes. This doesn't mean much coming from a guy who has binary taste buds - capable of detecting spicy or non-spicy and nothing else. But the reason I can say that the food is good is because my wife tried it and said she liked the food.

The Sambar vada was nicely soaked in Sambar ( and hence it is called Sambar vada, as opposed to just Vada or Sambar or French fries! ) and tasted much better than other Sambar vadas that I have tried in the area. Price is very reasonable. Dosas cost less than $6. So a meal will only cost you a $1 more than that in Taco Bell or the same as two Venti Lattes in Starbucks !

This place competes with other South Indian restaurants like Saravan Bhavan, Udipi, Madras Cafe, which are in the near by area. The quality is close to Saravana Bhavan but it costs less and the food is definitely better than the other two South Indian veggie places.

Conclusion: Worth your time and money

Time for an update

2007-10-08T19:18:00.000-07:00

It has been about 3 months since the last post - there is a mention of INFY having their quarterly report in the previous post and INFY managed to have one more quarterly report before I could post another Blog !! The market has been very generous in the last few months, lot of TECH stocks have hit historic highs - AAPL, GOOG - to name two.

A quick look at how our three picks have done:

MRVL 16.85 ( down 8.2% from 18.36)
AAPL 184.7 (up 117% !! from 84.86)
SAY 29.84 (up 41.4% from 21.09 )

The average return from these 3 stocks is 50.3% !!! In the same time S&P 500 is up by 12.8% ( to 1552 from 1361 ). The three picks have done amazingly well indeed. Thanks to AAPL stock doubling in less than 6 months. After including the 22% loss from AMGN - which was later dropped from the list - the average return is still 32.2%.

AAPL, of course had a very good quarter with MAC sales increasing and Iphone sales picking up. The general belief is that AAPL will continue this ride at least till the Christmas season. SAY, surprisingly, did not get hurt by the weakening Dollar. Other Indian IT companies - like INFY - have been taking a earnings hit due to weak Dollar. I would still like to stick with MRVL for few more quarters. MRVL hasn't done very well in the last year but hopefully it will turn around very soon.

With lot of stocks at historic highs, it may not be a good time to get in the market. There is FED meeting coming up this week. It might be better to wait and watch rather than start buying stocks now.

Good luck and happy trading.

The market is HOT !

2007-07-07T15:22:00.000-07:00

I don't know if it is due to global warming or just plain summer heat but the market is definitely HOT now. Almost every other stock in every other sector is going up. Here's the update on the 3 stock picks ( AMGN was removed from the list )

MRVL 18.2 ( -0.8% from 18.36)
AAPL 132 ( +55% from 84.86 )
SAY 26.3 ( +24% from 21.09 )

The net return from these 3 stocks - after including 22% loss from AMGN is 14. 3%. In the same time the return from S&P 500 is 12% (1364 to 1530).

The successful launch of AAPL's Iphone has translated into a 55% increase in their stock price. Unless the device has some serious flaws, AAPL stock is going to maintain that level. Lot of analysts have predicted that AAPL would hit 150 by this year end. We will have to wait and see.

Other than AAPL, MRVL has been showing some strength in the last few weeks. We should keep a close watch on MRVL.

Infosys earnings report will be released next week. A good report from INFY is good news for SAY. Since most of the earnings report from INFY has been good, I expect SAY to move up by 5% in the next few weeks. Lets see what happens :)

Stocks - after a break

2007-06-14T13:08:00.000-07:00

A quick check on how the recommendations have done in the last few months:

MRVL 17.0 ( down 7% from 18.36 )
AAPL 119.0 ( up 40% !!! from 84.86)
AMGN 58.0 ( down 22% from 74.8 )
SAY 26.0 ( up 23% from 21.09)

In the same time S&P 500 was up by 11% to 1522 from 1364. In comparison the average return from the above 4 stocks is 8.4%. That says one thing - stock picking is best left to professionals :).
The second thing to learn is we should have got out of AMGN when it dropped down to $65 - we could have minimised the loss. We will close the AMGN position now. It has had more than its share of bad news taking the stock down.

AAPL has benefitted significantly from the Iphone hype. If AAPL could sell 5 million of them this year - they sold around 10 million IPODs last quarter - that could boost their earnings by 10-15%. Looking at the numbers, AAPL could be slightly overvalued. But we will stick with it for the rest of the year.

video

2007-03-31T18:46:00.000-07:00

A good (Stock) week

2007-01-13T16:30:00.000-08:00

This week has been good for couple of recommendations. When AAPL was added to the list on Dec 31, I didn't have any clue about Iphone. The AAPL recommendation was based on a speculation on good IPOD & MAC sales. Anyway, here is the summary for this week on the recommendations.

MRVL ------20.3 ( + 10.5% from 18.36 )
SAY --------24.3 ( + 15.2% from 21.09 )
AMGN------73.2 ( - 2.2% from 74.87 )
AAPL ------94.6 ( + 11.1% from 84.86 )

Net return is 8.65% from these four picks. In the next few weeks AAPL will most likely come down from its historic highs. But it is still a good bet for 2007. MRVL has some risks due to options backdating ( AAPL is also part of this club ) but in the next 4-6 months MRVL will have a significant return.
Regarding SAY- Infosys, which is another outsourcing play reported good earnings last week. We can expect reasonably good numbers from Sathyam too.
In comparison S&P500 was 1430 at the end of last week - up 4.8% from 1364 since November.

Good luck trading.

End of the year update

2006-12-31T17:55:00.000-08:00

The 3 stock picks haven't moved much in the last couple of weeks.
MRVL ---- 19.19 ( up 4.5%)
SAY -------24.01 ( up 13.7%)
AMGN ----68.3 ( down 8.6%)

Net return is 3.2%. S&P is 1418 - up 3.9% in the same time period. While nothing much has happened to move these stocks, all the stocks have good potential for 2007. Adding one more stock to the list - AAPL. This has moved from $85 at the beginning of 2006 to $50 in the middle of 2006 and is now back at $85 (84.8). With no serious challenge for IPOD coming up and MAC sales on the rise this has good potential for the first half of 2006.

AAPL ---- 84.8 ( 0%).

2006 has not been a good year for Tech stocks even though DOW hit historic highs. Techs have gotten cheaper during the course of year. It will be a good time to get into the sector. A good one to look at is AKAM - Akamai. An investment in AKAM would have yielded a 165% return in the last year. This will be a stock to get in on any weakness.

Hapy 2007 to everyone.

Update for this week

2006-12-09T08:04:00.000-08:00

A quick check to see where the stocks stand after almost a month.

Price as of Dec 09,2006
MRVL - 20.7 ( up 12% from 18.36 )
SAY ---- 23.6 ( up 11% from 21.09 )
AMGN --69.9 ( down 6% from 74.8)

The average return over the last month is 5.6%. S&P 500 is at 1409 on Dec 08 and has increased by 3.2% in the last month. It looks the 3 picks has done well over the last month.
One stock that has done very well in the last one year is ATI. It has gone up from $34 in Jan 06 to $98 in dec 06. That 188% return in 12 months !! Though there has been other stocks that have done well in the last one year, this one is interesting to watch.

A portfolio of three stocks is probably a little risky even though it has one tech, one bio-tech and one with international exposure. I will be adding more to this. If you are looking at any interesting stock, feel free to add a comment.

Stock update for the week

2006-11-12T21:47:00.000-08:00

Lets check the picks from last week.

1. MRVL 18.8 ( up from 18.36)
2. SAY 21.89 (up from 21.09)
3. AMGN 73.46 ( down from 74.87 )

the weeks total return: 1.4%.

One weeks return is no measure of the picks. Let us see how these perform over the
next few months.

Stock Picks

2006-11-04T15:10:00.000-08:00

Do I have a formal degree in business administartion or finance - no, am I qualified to pick stocks - probably not, but do I enjoy playing with the market and picking stocks - Oh yeah!!
Most of my knowledge about stocks is from watching CNBC for about 1/2 hour everyday and time permitting, listening to Dr.Cramer . With that not-so solid background I have decided to post some stock recommendations and have weekly performance rating on those recommendations.

For the serious folks you can check out caps.fool.com - where you can have your collection of stock picks and see how well your stocks perform with respect to others.

I will be adding more stocks to the list from time to time and will probably remove some from the list if the selected stock doesn't do very well.

This weeks picks

Price as of Nov. 3
SAY (Satyam computer services) 21.09
MRVL (Marvell Technology) 18.36
AMGN (Amgen) 74.87

For comparison we can use S&P500 1364.3

Hindi song in "Inside man" !!

2006-04-02T12:25:00.000-07:00

We were in the movie theatre to watch the new Denzel Washington movie "Inside man". As the main titles came up on the screen there was an all familiar audio in the back ground -" Jinke sar ho ishq ki.." from Dil Se !! It was totally unexpected. We never heard anyone mention it before and at first we thought it was playing by mistake. But then as the titles rolled on the whole "Chaiya Chaiya" was playing in the background.
I will be interested in finding out how Spike Lee ( movie director) ended up with the Sukhwindhar's number from Dil Se.

To stop outsourcing

2006-03-13T21:00:00.000-08:00

This came up during a discussion at work. We were talking about the money football players make (in US). Most of sportsmen in US get signed up for almost a million$ a year contract. Each football team has about 60 guys in its roster. With 32 teams in NFL thats about 1900 players. If we add up numbers from Baseball & Basketball, there are about 3000 players in all who are guaranteed to make a million dollars each year.
If you are a kid in high school who is interested in making a million, the chance of getting into sports and becoming rich is 3000/300,000,000(=population of USA). Thats about 0.001%.
Compare that to a kid growing up in India who does the same math. A cricket team needs only 10 players. Most of the money that goes into sports (in India) goes into cricket. His/her chances of making money in cricket is 10/1000,000,000. That comes to 0.000,001%.
This math shows that kids growing up in US have 1000 times better chance of making money in sports compared to a kid in India. No wonder India produces more engineers than US.

There is only one way outsourcing can be stopped - Pay up the Engineers !! If US can sign up 3000 engineers for a million dollar contract every year, more students will take up engineering and outsourcing can be stopped.

Cars

2006-03-04T10:25:00.000-08:00

Consumer report for auto makers came out with their best of the breed car,SUV list for this year. They pick the best autos in 10 categories - and for the first time the best cars in all the different categories were from Japanese auto makers !!
Honda civic was picked as the best small sedan and Honda Accord is the best family car in the $20K to $30K range.
I went through a similar search when I was looking to buy a new car. I wanted to stay away from the usual desi-cars: Honda Civic, Accord & Toyota Corolla, Camry fall in this category. Plus none of these desi-cars had the looks which was remotely appealing. I went for a ride in BMW, Nissan Maxima,Altima and then was coming up with a list of other cars to check out. Under pressure from the boss at home and with great reluctance I went to the Honda dealers across the street from my house. I was telling myself that I was there to get an idea and I am definitely not buying a Honda. The anti-Honda sentiment lasted only till the moment I drove the Accord-EX, with heated leather seats, moon roof and 240HP. After thinking for few hours we decided this is the car we have to get. It is almost like an entry level luxury car with a price tag less than $30K. On top of all that the new Accords look much better than their bland predecessors. Looks like Honda learned a thing are two from the success of IPOD - great performance should be supported by good style to offer an irresistible combination for buyers.

We have had the Accord for few months now. Absolutely no complaints about the car till now. The customer service from Honda is just amazing. After we bough the car, we got a call from Honda asking us about the car buying experience at the dealers. We got a similar call after our first scheduled service. These guys follow up and make sure we have a good experience owning the car and it does not end the minute we buy the car.

No wonder the wise desi have preferred Hondas all along !!

Hi Tech and Rajasthan !!

2006-02-06T21:24:00.000-08:00

Recently read an article about the growth of broadband in Rajasthan !! I have read about head-bands and Rajasthan but never brodaband & Rajasthan in the same sentence :) [That was an attempt at humour].

The article mentioned that Rajasthan is getting MOTOwi4(TM) Canopy(TM) wireless broadband equipment for construction of a statewide wireless network. The goal is to set up a statewide wireless broadband to connect the panchayats and the local junta. The wireless grid helps to connect remote villages to the world with an high speed connection !This is said to be the first of its kind in the entire country !!

I can only imagine the amount of joy it will bring to all the villagers when they get on-line for the first time. With time they will get used to it but the whole internet experience seemed like a miracle to me the first time I got online.

Most of the articles that talk about hi-tech growth in B'lore, Chennai or Hyd. Once the infrastructure is laid out we can expect Rajasthan to be in the news more often than before.
This is all happening under the leadeship of Vasundara Raje Scindia - the current Chief minister of Rajasthan and also the IT minister of the state.

Composite growth

2006-01-14T21:29:00.000-08:00

There's Something about Boeing : Boeing, a leading aircraft manufacturer, will take the credit for flying the first "composite" aircraft sometime next year. Boeing 787 is going to be the first commercial jet to have its wings made entirely of composites - a plastic like material that is much lighter than metal alloys currently used. The material shift will help the 787 have 20% less fuel consumption and also help reduce the maintenance costs. Though these composites are much lighter than metals, they do not conduct electricity and hence makes the aircraft more prone to lightning strikes. Boeing has somehow overcome this problem by embedding some metal mesh in these wings. (For more details please read the latest IEEE Spectrum).

A quick check on Boeing's website shows the orders are already there for these new aircrafts. Air India has ordered 27 787s, Air canada has ordered 60 and Chinese airlines have ordered another 60 of those aircrafts. While Boeing does lot more than just the 787s, it does look like there is going to be a good amount of growth in their sales.
Yahoo finance shows Boeing stock (symbol BA) has gone up by 40% in the last year. An old giant has found a new growth pill. May be this will be a good buy.

H-1 visa to work in India ?

2006-01-08T18:34:00.000-08:00

Not long ago I was discussing with a bunch of friends about the long lines in front of the American consulates in India. And then we said - a day will come when these guys have to wait to get a visa to go and work in India. People will be fighting just to get a chance to go work there. At that time I never thought it will happen so soon.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_03/b3967085.htm

This is an article in buisness week about adveturous people (non-desis) in their 20s getting a job in India and making it their home for an extended period of time.

One of those foreigners said this about his job -"India provided me a growth opportunity that wasn't there back home." This would sound very familiar to middle class Britons in the 1857-1947 period. Most of the English men/women came to India for a better life - they could live in a huge house, and could have servants to attend to their needs.
A full 50 years later history seems to be repeating with a different flavor !!

At this time this is mostly for call center jobs. While they are not really high paying jobs but they do provide enough cash to lead a comfortable life in their new home. May be very soon it will move to other and all kind of jobs. And may be India will once again be the dreamland of oppurtunities, hope and developement - as it was only 1000 years ago.

"Patently" Infringing

2005-08-31T20:57:00.000-07:00

Yesterday Creative technology was awarded the patent for orgnasing digital music under different categories. This is similar to the way music is stored in an IPOD and thus this patent may mean APPLE may have to share its fortunes with Creative.
Creative's CEO also said that they had the NOMAD jukebox 13 months before Apple came out with their IPOD.
So these guys had the idea much before Apple did. I decided to check out what they did, financially, with this idea and the one year lead they had. Comapring the two stock prices on yahoo showed this -

Apple stock has gone up by 150% where as Creative's stock went down by about 10% in the last on year. Well, may be stock price is not a good indication of the company's performance. May be we can compare income of the two companies-

A quick check of their balance sheet showed this:
(net income)

2004 Creative 134 mil Apple 276 mil

2003 Creative 23 mil Apple 69 mil

2002 Creative -19 mil Apple 65mil

From 2003 to 2004 Apple's income has increased by 200 million where as that of Creative has gone up by about 100 million. Creative's statement, from 2004, attributes the growth to increased sales from their MP3 players and other personal entertainment products. Looks like Creative's growth has been pretty good but just that they could have done much better than Apple with the advantage of being in th market before them.

Kavidhai

2005-08-11T18:27:00.000-07:00

well, lets try Kavidhai too.. (Tamil Poetry)

kaatru, puyal, maram
kadhal, nee, naan,
verodu ennai aativaithaye...

thural mazhai paathu vandha ennai,
puyal mazhaiyil muzhgadithaye,
ezhuda endru sollum sooriyan illai,
unnodu vandha megam vizhiyai maraithadhey,

paarvai andri, balam indri , patuthivitta ennai,
kai pidithu konjam karai yetrividu kannama...

shud try writing this in Tamil too.

காற்று, புயல், மரம்
காதல், நி, நான்
வெரொடு என்னை ஆட்டி வைத்தாயே
(not sure about verodu..)
தூறல் மழை பாற்து வன்த என்னை,
புயல் மழையில் முழ்கடிதாயே
(There are probably some spelling errors..)
எழுடா என்று சொல்லும் சூரியன் இல்ல

will try to explain this later.

Latest news - man forgets wife in Gas station !!

2005-08-08T21:57:00.000-07:00

Read this on CNN today :
-------------------------xxxx-----------------------------------
ROME, Italy (Reuters) -- A Macedonian man left his wife at an Italian service station and only realized he had driven off without her six hours later.
The couple, who were travelling with their 4-year-old daughter, pulled over for petrol in the coastal city of Pesaro as they were heading back to their home to Germany.
After filling the tank, the husband drove away -- without noticing that his 30-year-old wife had got out of the car to go to the toilet.
--------------------------xxx------------------------------------

Is this possible ? Is his wife so quite ? How can one not know that a person is missing from his car ? Or is he so used to ignoring his wife that he did not notice her absence ? Or did he place her in his SEP field ? ( Somebody Else's Problem, according to Hitchhikers Guide the easiset way to make something disappear is put it in somebody else's problem field, then one will not notice it even if it is right in front of one's eyes as the brain would just block it out !!)

anyway, thought this was really weird.

Selfish Gene

2005-07-31T10:11:00.000-07:00

Read this book sometime back. I haven't read Darwin's book "Origin of species" but have a working knowledge of his idea from high school science. One of Darwin's theory (on evolution) is survival of the fittest. This book goes one step further and explains that it is the survival of the fittest gene and not an individual as most of us might think. If genes are taken as the survival units then lot of evolutionary behaviours can be explained, according to this book.

I am not a biology student but I could easily understand all the ideas and concepts put forth in the book. Also found myself agreeing with most of them.

One thing, that I found very interesting, was the explanation on seemingly selfless behaviour of organisms - Instances like when an organism sacrifices its life for its offspring or sibling. The book explains how this still falls under the shadow of the theory of evolution and does not go against it.

Another interesting part in the book was the section on game of life. In this game one has two choices, you can either cooperate with others or you can engage in conflict. Depending on what your opponent does - when you cooparete or fight - you win or loose some points. The game was contested in a computer among lot prorams, each with its own strategy to fight or cooperate. The program which won the contest was the simplest of the lot. It statrts by coperating and then repeats whatever the opponent does. It is explained in detail in the book.

Very interesting book.

What is God - Part II !!

2005-07-31T10:09:00.000-07:00

Continuation of my previous post about my thoughts on God.

http://ideasinca.blogspot.com/2005/07/what-is-god.html

So, if we assume life takes care of itself, where is God ? Is he sitting somewhere up there in the clouds looking at all of us ?
The explanation which sounds most credible to me is the one I heard in the story of Prahalad.
http://www.twilightbridge.com/hobbies/festivals/holi/narashimha.htm ( the link is for story of Prahalad ). When is Dad asks him where is God - he answers God is everywhere. If God has created this world then it is only logical that everything here is a manifestation of God. He can be found in anything and everything in this universe. This sounds very similar to how Yoda describes "force" in Star Wars - "The force that binds us all..".

It is only in the name. If God - or an associated religion - is something one does not like very much then we can call it the force, if it is not the force then we can call it nature's wonder. Force or nature's wonder is something most people will agree on mostly due to what God, and the usually attached religion, has come to mean in human history. But in the end we are refering to one and the same thing. It is not something completely beyond humans. Most of us - old enough to have lived for millions of seconds - would have had few seconds of exposure to that force. If we are God's creation then we should have some God nature in us and should be able to feel him.

When God is seen as the all pervading force, it makes all the difference - from believing that there is God, we go where we know that there is God !!

Victoria pictures

2005-07-30T18:04:00.000-07:00

A snap from Victoria.

After many attempts to capture the spectacular fireworks at Victoria, managed to get couple of pictures right.

What is God !

2005-07-29T22:53:00.000-07:00

Recently read post by Mukundan on God. http://chennaicentral.blogspot.com/
It brought back some memories from that time in life when the biggest challenge was to find the meaning of life !!
Here's my take on the topic - the issue, as I see it ,is God is being treaed like some local Zamindar - he gest upset with you if you are not willing to acknowledge his powers. He then does a show of power to prove who is stronger. As we have enough problems in life already, we do not want to add on to it by antagonizing one more powerful person. So might as well sing songs in his praise and in return get some favours from him.
God, being God, probably deserves a little better treatment than this. I am not able to believe God ever punishes anyone. Or in other words I dont see any need for God to micro-manage at the individual level - making sure the people get punished for their actions. Here, I agree with Mukundan's post - we are bound by our own Karma - actions. Once we have chosen to act we cannot escape the results or consequences of our actions. The actions will come back and reward us or punish us depending only on those actions.

So, what are the right actions and what are the wrong ones? For our own welfare, any actions that does not come back to hurt us are right . In a broader sense how do we define right ? - We can start with an assumption that life is right and conclude that any action that promotes life is right. Action which do not hinder life will not come back to hurt us and hence will be right for life - our life.

So, where is God now ?

I am thinking God could be involved in starting the whole process - ( was it Big Bang ? ). Once life unfolds, it takes care of itself. A line from the movie Jurassic Park comes to my mind - "Life finds a way" - http://www.garnersclassics.com/qpark.htm -

this is becoming a long one. will post part II on my thoughts on God.

more to come...

Books - Guns germ and Steel

2005-07-20T21:35:00.000-07:00

Last book I read -

Really enjoyed this book. As every other book, I did not manage to finish this one. Author tries to answer the question - why is it that Europeans were the ones to go out and rule the world and not any other race ? Are they genetically superior or is it just due to turn of events ? -

Most of us would have had this discussion. I think the author has done a good job explaining the various factors involved and how these factors come into play. The approach was scientific enough to keep one ineterested and not too deep that one would get lost.

One ineteresting fact from the book - I did not know before - the arrangement of keys in QWERT keyboard was to slow down typing. This was done to avoid typewritters from getting stuck. The author points this out as an argument saying western civilaztion does not always favour innovation. Apparently, once the typewritters improved better keyboard designs came about. These designs were stopped before they gained popularity.

There is a lot interesting facts in the book. Highl recommeneded.

Anniyan - whats on Shankar's mind

2005-07-13T07:28:00.000-07:00

Recently watched the movie Anniyan. The best part of the movie was Vivek's comedy -amazingly timed one -liners ! The main story, though, left a feeling of having seen it before- A common man unable to tolerate the apathy & corruption in Indian society starts to set it right with some stunts. List - "Gentleman", "Indian", "Anniyan"
The process is started when the hero has a first hand experience of how bad the society is
- if he hasn't already felt it by watching Shankar's movies :)

In all three movies Shankar has picked well-built stars for the main role. Surya should probably add little more muscles before he can qualify, Vijay will probably never qualify . Siddharth was an exception as the movie was titled "Boys" and also "Boys" is beyond the scope of current discussion.

The hero almost always leaves a clue - being a nice guy he has to help the cops solve the crime before the movie gets over. The innovation has been from an ancient tamil character in "Indian" to jumbled words in Tamil-Sanskrit combo in "Anniyan". I forget what happens in "Gentleman".

The main character is either a Brahmin by birth in real life or is made one in the movie.

I have to watch the movies again to dig more similarities. I am sure there are more to come.

Economics & Voltage

2005-04-16T14:24:00.000-07:00

Looking at the current wave of outsourcing (jobs from US to India ) reminds me of a basic theory about electrical voltage.Two point of different voltages - one at a higher voltage and the other at a lower voltage - can stay they are as long as there is no connection between them. Once they are connected their voltages become equal after some time. Depending on the resistance in the connection it could take long or short time for the voltages to be equalized.

Looking at two economies - US & Indian economy for instance - they can maintain their relative strength or weakness, as long as there is no connetion between them. Once a connection is established between them they are bound to be equalized, with time. It will happen eventually.
Outsourcing is probably the means by which the equalization will happen.

Reminds me of a line from the movie Matrix - " You hear that sound Mr.Anderson, that is the sound of inevitability..."

women drive civilization

2005-04-07T12:41:00.000-07:00

Men created the present civilized world. They have their own ideas
and work on them - driving civiliztion. But then...
A beautiful girl thinks the diretion the man is heading is not "cool"
enough. Now this talented man - driving civilization - has to change
to impress the girls. Now he strats driving the civilization in different
direction.
I guess the current one is a result of women backed, men created
civilization.

Sundar has gone one step ahead :) - http://sundar72.blogspot.com/2005/08/what-is-god.html