Next update on stocks

 

At his time S&P500 (SPY) is trading at $518 with PE close to 28. It has increased by 10% from Jan 1 2024 to Apr 2024. And from Oct 2023, it has increased by 18%. That is a nice run in 6 short months.

AAPL has been flat for almost a year, trading at $169. Main contributor to current run is NVDA. It was trading at $227 last year and in Apr 2024, it is trading at $880.It has market cap of $2.2trillion, compare that to GOOG which has market of cap of $1.9trillion.

Little bit of stocks

 Market has gone up nicely since last post. S&P 500 is trading at $436, with PE ratio at 25.

Interesting stock these days is NVDA. It is trading at $433. Looking at valuation it has price to sales ratio of 40 ! Revenue is close to $26bill and market cap is $1Trillion. Trailing PE ratio is 226 and forward PE ratio is 58.

They are the leader in AI market but is the valuation justified ? We will get some idea next week when the earnings are released.

After earnings - NVDA is trading at $470. Not too bad !

Funny, as of 2/26/2024, NVDA is trading at $790. Its PE ratio is 66, that is after stock increased by 60% in last 6 months. Price to sales ratio is fairly high at 34.

Tracking real estate again

Intrest rates have been going up for the last year. Suprisingly bay area house prices haven't dropped much. It did come down little bit but not as much as expected. In the last few months mortgage rate is as high as 6.5% to 7%. It will be intersting to see if this creates price drop in Bay area real estate as expected.

18750 Barnhart ave Cupertino dropped price by $180k to $3.8mill from $3.98mill

21725 Regnart Rd Cupertino dropped price by $98K  to $3.3mill from $3.398mill

18811 Loree ave Cupertino dropped price $800k !! to $3mill from $3.8mill

1134 Kentwood ave Cupertino sold $80k less than asking for $2.32mill, from $2.4mill

10326 Cherry tree lane Cupertino sold $300k more than asking for $3.01mill from $2.6mill

Back to tracking stock market

There were too many events with Covid lock down, opening up and people starting to go out again. In the middle of it stock market went down, up and now it is going down again. Story now is interest rates are going up to contain inflation. This is where we are now -

S&P 500 (SPY) : $364. PE ratio is 18.4. (source: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio) 

There are stocks which seem to have low valuation, at least a PE ratio I have not seen them trade at for a long time.

INTC : $26.5.     PE: 5.7

META: $138.2.   PE: 11.2

QCOM: $116.     PE: 10.3

GOOG: $97.7.    PE: 18.2

AAPL: $143.      PE: 23.7

Meta (or FB) dropped further lower to $120 as of Dec 30, 2021. I typically look at PE ratio to see if something is overvalued. META is trading at PE of 11.5 at this price. But what makes it attaractive is operating cash flow is $54billion, which is 1/6th of market cap of $314billion - or 17.2% of market cap. For comparison AAPL market cap is $2.07 trillion and operating cash flow is $120billion, which makes cash flow to be 5.7% of market cap.

Next set of price drops Bay area real estate

 In the current market, with interest rates going up, prices continue to drop. Some of the listing that show the price drop -

22047 Clearcreek ct Cupertino dropped price by $100k from $3.1mill to $3mill

10341 Stokes Ave, Cupertino dropped price by $200k from $2.9mill to $2.7mill

1509 Harrison ct, Sunnyvale dropped listing price by $500k to $2.99mill from $3.49mill. Sold for $2.97mill.

20323 Bollinger rd, Cupertino dropped listing price by $300k to $2.68mill from $2.98mill

7545 Dumas dr, Cupertino dropped listing price by $110k to $2.69mill from $2.8mill. Sold for $2.58mill.

21847 Shattuck dr Cupertino dropped listing price by $200k to $2.95mill from $3.15mill

10171 Amelia ct, Cupertino dropped listing price by $100k to $3.2mill from $3.3mill

19721 Bixby dr, Cupertino selling price was $169k less than listing price at $2.5mill.

10574 Sterling blvd Cupertino dropped listing price by $100k to $1.89mill from $1.99mill

Well prices drop again, after going up quite a bit

 I had stopped following the real estate market in and around south bay. Partially due to other concerns related to Covid, lockdown etc. And also because prices started going up like crazy. Now, in April 2022, interest rates are going up. S&P 500 dropped to $412 from peak of $480. All this seems to have some impact in real estate market.

12162 Woodside Road Saratoga - dropped listing price by $350k from $3.35mill to $3mill

859 Candlewood drive Cupertino - dropped listing price by $200k from $3mill to $2.8mill.

Same house dropped price again from $2.8mill to $2.6mill on 6/6/2022.

Dropped price again from $2.6nill to $2.2mill on 6/13/2022 !

6719 Devonshire dr, San jose - dropped listing price by $200k, from $3.2mill to $3mill.

7752 Huntridge ln Cupertino - dropped listing price by $200k from $2.48mill to $2.28mill

10601 N Portal ave, Cupertino - dropped listing price by $300k from $2.9mill to $2.6mill

11602 Bridge park ct Cupertino - dropped listing price by $250k from $3.8mill to $3.55mill

1538 Poppy Way, Cupertino - dropped listing price by $60k to $2.89mill from $2.95mill

11117 Linda vista dr Cupertino - dropped listing price by $300k to $3.18mill from $3.48mill

21898 Shattuck dr Cupertino - dropped listing price by $200k to $3.48mill from $3.68mill 

Price dropped again by $500k to $2.98mill from $3.48mill !

Bay area real estate price drop resumes.. after a break

Monitoring house prices in south bay - mainly around Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Santa clara area. This market was hot few years back, run down houses selling for close to $2million ! In the last year or so it showed some signs of cooling down. Listing prices were dropped to attract buyers, and some houses selling less than listing prices. There was a breif pause in this cooling down beginning of this year. Now it looks like market slow down as resume after this pause. Here is a sample of some listing and selling prices for this month -

1. 22032 Acacia way Cupertino - dropped listing price by ~60k to $2.64mill on 7/28
2. 1617 Wright ave Sunnyvale  -  dropped listing price by $90k to $2.4mill on 7/26
3. 887 Ferngrove dr Cupertino sold $80k higher than listing at $1.58mill on 7.26
4. 1580 Belleville way Sunnyvale sold $220k lower than asking at $2.05mill on 7/29
5. 903 Brookgrove ln Cupertino dropped listing price by $100k to $1.69mill on 7/18
6. 1473 Lewiston dr Sunnyvale sold $65k higher than asking at $1.86mill on 8/2
7. 20135 Cedar tree lane Cupertino dropped listing price by $400k !! to $1.99mill on 8/15
8. 22032 Acacia way Cupertino dropped listing price by $40k to $2.59mill on 8/16
9. 19964 Wheaton dr Cupertino sold $200k higher than asking at $2.62mill on 8/15


The Lewiston house is interesting, since a similar house - 1469 Lewiston dr Sunnyvale sold for $2.05mill in Aug 2017. Even though this one sold higher than asking, price has dropped by close to 200K over last two years. The market is trying to find a good stable point.

Another one (Cedar tree lane) has dropped listing price by almost $600k since June 2019 !

Looking at the above list, trend is clear. While there are still few houses selling higher than asking, most of them are showing a trend where price is being reduced. Aug to Dec is typically slow in terms of house sales. Short term this trend might continue, that said I think the market has a floor around $1.7million to $2million. Small drop will attract more buyers sitting on the sidelines. Will have to wait and see how this develops.

And just for fun, house in Palo alto dropped listing price by $2.9million !! to $13million - adds - 1025 Lincoln Ave Palo alto.

Mixed real estate market

House prices in early 2019 are showing some signs of stabilization. Like last month, some houses are still dropping their listing prices but at the same time, some of them are selling for much higher than asking price ! This is similar to last month but unlike what was seen last year - when most of them were selling for less than asking. Here is a sample for this month :

1. 3390 Tracy dr Santa Clara sold ~$110k above asking at $1.8mill on 3/11/19
    This is interesting as it is a ~1250 sqft house going for a reasonably high price !
2. 18453 Farmingham way Cupertino sold $0 above asking $2.45mill on 3/11/19
3. 10169 N Blaney ave Cupertino dropped listing price by ~$300k to $2.1mill
4. 11220 La Jolla ct Cupertino dropped listing price by $200k to $2.48mill
5. 10510 Deodara dr Cupertino sold $200k above asking at $2.01mill on 3/8/19
6. 289 La Herran Dr Santa Clara sold for $220k above asking at $1.7mill on 3/13/19
    This is similar to first one where a ~1280 sqft house selling for 1.7million !
7. 10395 Bret Ave Cupertino sold $192k above asking for $2.18mill on 3/23/19
8. 1326 Nelson way Sunnyvale sold $50k less than asking at $2.2mill on 3/22/19
    This is a ~1450 sqft house going for more than $2million !

Read from this sample is that price on low end has increased or the floor of prices have been lifetd higher. House above $2mill are still trying to find a stable point.