Monday, October 08, 2012

Low PE is bad


I had bought some HPQ, logic being that it had really low P/E ratio (of 6) and forward P/E of 4. Yes, HPQ has its share of problems and is not doing that well but such a low P/E was really tempting. It is turning out to be a bad trade so far, dropping from around $20 to $14.
Similarly other pull backs are not turning out that well either. MRVL seemed really cheap few months back. But it has gone down from $12 to trading around $9 in the last few months. Right now it is trading close to its book value. Another member of this group is INTC, it has P/E of 10 and in the last few months has dropped from $27 to $22.
Only conclusion that can be drawn is that all PC dependent stocks are taking a hit. Compare these to AAPL, which is sitting pretty at $640, with P/E of 15 and has gone up from $560 to $640 in the same time. While PC market is weakening, it is probably not going away. Ofcourse we have not bought any laptop in the last 3 years, whereas we did buy one IPAD and one smarphone during this time. And we might buy one more smartphone and mini-IPAD in the next few months. So laptops/PCs are being used less in the household, mainly reserved for transferring pictures or tasks that require good amount of typing. I do believe these PC based stocks are not going all the way to zero but it is getting really hard to buy them even at this low valuation.